How to Analyze GST Returns for Credit Monitoring

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GST Returns Analysis for Credit Monitoring: A Banker’s Practical Guide Vinu: Manu, a borrower recently submitted GST returns to support a working capital renewal. Honestly, I don't know where to start. How do you even read these things from a credit angle? Manu: Start with GSTR-3B and GSTR-1. GSTR-3...

Early Warning Signals (EWS)

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Early Warning Signals in Banking: Detect Stress Before NPA Vinu: Manu, before an account turns NPA, what are the first early warning signals bankers should watch? Manu: Account behaviour. Persistent overdrawings, irregular credits, and delayed EMI of even ₹2–3 lakh are the earliest signs of stress. ...

Industry Risk Analysis in Lending: Why One Size Does Not Fit All

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Industry Risk Analysis in Lending: Why One Size Does Not Fit All Vinu: Manu, why can’t banks use the same appraisal approach for all industries? Manu: Because each industry has a different risk structure—cash cycle, margins, customer concentration, and volatility vary widely. Vinu: From the start, w...

Common Red Flags in SME Loan Proposals and How to Identify Them Early

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SME Loan Red Flags: What Every Banker Must Identify Early Vinu: Manu, when an SME loan proposal comes in, what is the first red flag you look for? Manu: Unrealistic growth. If last year’s turnover is ₹2 crore and the proposal shows ₹4 crore next year without capacity expansion, it’s a warning. Vinu:...

Why Financial Projections Fail and How Bankers Should Stress-Test Them

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Why Financial Projections Fail: A Banker’s Guide to Stress Testing Vinu: Manu, most borrowers submit detailed projections. Yet many of them fail in reality. Why? Manu: Because projections are usually optimistic, not operational. They reflect what promoters hope will happen, not what the business can...