Understanding Stock Statements: Detecting Inflation and Window Dressing

Vinu: Manu, stock statements are submitted every month, but why do banks treat them so seriously?

Manu: Because stock statements decide drawing power. If stock is inflated, the bank ends up funding non-existent assets.

Vinu: What is the first thing you check in a stock statement?

Manu: Consistency. I compare current stock with last month and with sales. Sudden jumps without sales growth are the first red flag.

Vinu: Can you give an example?

Manu: If monthly sales are ₹40 lakh and closing stock suddenly rises from ₹60 lakh to ₹1.2 crore, it indicates possible inflation or slow-moving inventory.

Vinu: How do debtors link with stock inflation?

ManuMany borrowers inflate both. Sales are booked to increase debtors, and the same goods continue to appear as stock. That’s classic window dressing.

Vinu: Do valuation methods matter?

Manu:  Very much. Stock should be valued at cost or net realizable value, whichever is lower. Valuing obsolete stock at full cost overstates drawing power.

Vinu: How do you cross-check stock statements?

Manu: By matching them with GST returns, sales in the P&L, and bank account credits. If numbers don’t align, the statement is unreliable.

Vinu: What about negative stock or abnormal margins?

Manu: Negative stock indicates data manipulation. Abnormally high gross margins may mean purchases are understated to inflate profits and stock.

Vinu: How effective are stock audits?

Manu: Very effective if done properly. Physical verification often reveals slow-moving or non-existent stock funded by the bank.

Vinu: What is the biggest risk for bankers here?

Manu: Lending against paper stock. Once default happens, inflated stock has no recovery value.

Vinu: So what’s the key lesson?

Manu: Treat stock statements as risk indicators, not routine paperwork. Window dressing today becomes NPA tomorrow.

Vinu: That’s a strong message.

Manu: And a critical one for every credit officer.

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